Mineral Wells Index, Mineral Wells, TX

Community News Network

April 17, 2013

Everybody talks about the weather, but it's not easy to predict

(Continued)

When the almanacs risk testable predictions, they often fail. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicted that the Atlantic corridor would average 47.5 degrees for March 2013, off by nearly four degrees. That might seem like a reasonably good guess, except that anyone with access to historical averages — that is, anyone with an Internet connection — can usually get within a few degrees by sticking near the mean. The almanac's prediction for February was 29 degrees, nine degrees below the actual temperature, and the forecast for January was off by five degrees.

Critics of the almanacs are nearly as old as the almanacs themselves. A forecaster at the U.S. Weather Bureau complained about the almanacs' inaccuracy in 1905, and a Harvard professor did the same in a public address in 1926. But we simply can't let go of the dream of weather omniscience.

Generally speaking, forecasters who make predictions months in advance rely on analog techniques, which means they look for patterns in the current weather, then find similar patterns in prior years. Their predictions are based on what happened in the past. The problem is that this technique has never been shown to work particularly well. The atmosphere is a complicated place, and it's very difficult to say that a single past year, or even a combination of past years, is enough like this year to make accurate predictions.

The National Weather Service relies more on dynamic forecasting. The agency's experts observe the weather systems at work in the atmosphere, then use mathematical and physical models to calculate what will happen next. The technique is far more reliable, but it has its limits.

"We sustain higher accuracy out to two to three days in advance; then it starts dropping off faster at days six through eight," says Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.

Text Only
Community News Network
Featured Ads
Mineral Wells Index


Click on a photo to visit our SmugMug page

Front page
Weather Underground Radar
Twitter Updates
Follow us on twitter
AP Video
Raw: Air Algerie Flight 5017 Wreckage Virginia Governor Tours Tornado Aftermath Judge Faces Heat Over Offer to Help Migrant Kids Kerry: No Deal Yet on 7-Day Gaza Truce Kangaroo Goes Missing in Oklahoma More M17 Bodies Return, Sanctions on Russia Grow Gaza Residents Mourn Dead Amid Airstrikes Raw: Deadly Tornado Hits Virginia Campground Ohio State Marching Band Chief Fired After Probe Raw: Big Rig Stuck in Illinois Swamp Cumberbatch Brings 'Penguins' to Comic-Con Raw: Air Algerie Crash Site in Mali Power to Be Restored After Wash. Wildfire Crashed Air Algerie Plane Found in Mali Israel Mulls Ceasefire Amid Gaza Offensive In Case of Fire, Oxygen Masks for Pets Mobile App Gives Tour of Battle of Atlanta Sites
Must Read
Seasonal Content
Parade
Magazine

Click HERE to read all your Parade favorites including Hollywood Wire, Celebrity interviews and photo galleries, Food recipes and cooking tips, Games and lots more.
Stocks
Hyperlocal Search
Premier Guide
Find a business

Walking Fingers
Maps, Menus, Store hours, Coupons, and more...
Premier Guide