Prediction: MVP for Ramirez, struggles for Ellsbury

By Bill Burt
THE EAGLE-TRIBUNE (NORTH ANDOVER, Mass.)

BOSTON Tue, May 13 2008

— Here are some questions you probably have as the Boston Red Sox look to enter New England Patriots territory and make it three titles in five years.

1. How will the new "Joe" treat Sox-Yankees rivalry?
This is not really a question. I know exactly what will happen. Joe Girardi, unlike Joe Torre, will treat the Red Sox series as if it is the only thing that matters.
We pretty much figured this out when Hank Steinbrenner came out recently and mocked "Red Sox Nation."
Girardi will bring some Billy Martin-like fire to this series, which means David Ortiz is fair game when a Red Sox player needs to be drilled as payback.
Personally, I can't wait.

2. How come the Red Sox made so few changes in the offseason?
In other words, why didn't the Red Sox acquire Johan Santana?
Because they didn't have to. Really. This team's best years are ahead of it.
They appear to have all the bases covered. They have leadership, experience, youth, pitching, power, speed, defense and a good bench.
They are good enough to stand pat, gambling that some of those top prospects (Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and/or Clay Buchholz) might become great.
The Red Sox have a great mix and it worked. Why mess with a good thing?
Remember, an inordinate number of players did not play their best in 2007, yet the Sox still won the championship.
While the Santana watch will be on for a few years, most people are very happy with the pieces in place, top to bottom.

3. Will Manny Ramirez be the same guy we got to know and love on and off the field in October?
So far, absolutely. But there is still time to turn. Ramirez has gone out of his way to say he wants to play more years here. Before it was two more after this one. More recently, it has been four years after this one.
What we also saw was a guy who performed in clutch situations like we've never seen before. I wonder if the two go together?
If he is the same guy on the field that he was in the playoffs, he will be the MVP this season. I will put him at .325, 45 HRs and 145 RBI. And that's including about seven days of extra Manny rest.

4. How good will Daisuke Matsuzaka be in 2008?
I believe I am in the minority here, but I believe he will have a great season, winning close to 20 games. I've said this before and I'll say it again, Dice-K is an extraordinary competitor. He is chasing guys like Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling as guys who don't take losing exceptionally well.
Last year was not a good one. It was OK. But it was one of learning on and off the field. Now at age 27, and a year under his belt in Boston, he is ready for the big time.
I am going to go out on a limb here and put him in the running for a Cy Young Award. I believe he is going to trust his catcher about 100 percent more than he did a year ago.
I look for him to lead the team in complete games in 2008.

5. Will Jacoby Ellsbury continue what he started in 2007?
I would like to say "absolutely," but I believe there will be a mini-sophomore slump ahead. As the leadoff hitter, he will have a lot of pressure on him.
But his quick bat and even quicker feet will make up for some bumps. This kid has what it takes to be a major success here.
If he can stay away from the Coco Crisp-like month-long slumps, he will be fine, hitting about .300. The thing I look for are a few more extra-base hits. You can tell he hit the weights this off-season.

6. What will be the Red Sox' biggest hurdle this season?
Normally, I would say injuries. But I believe the "hangover" that takes over could be potentially a bigger problem.
I say that because anything less than 93 wins might mean an October on the Florida golf courses.
There are so many good teams in the American League: Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Los Angeles (Angels), New York and Toronto, which means a Wild Card is not assured to anybody.
The Sox are loaded with veterans and "pros," but winning a title takes a lot out of a team. If they avoid the hangover and injuries, well, the Sox will definitely play in October.

7. Will Curt Schilling pitch for the Red Sox again?
It might not matter. But then again, the way the Sox could be relying on 41-year-old Tim Wakefield or the oft-injured Bartolo Colon, it might matter.
Schilling will have had about nine months of rest by mid-August. That should be enough.
The question is how much would he be available by late September and October. Schilling always has been a workhorse. He is a competitor, too. He was always the first pitcher to throw 90 pitches a few weeks into spring training.
My guess is he will be back, because of pride. Will he be needed? That's another question.

8. Which Red Sox player will surpass expectations in 2008?
We expect everyone to have career seasons around here.
J.D. Drew, though, appears to be the leader in the clubhouse with his mashing in the Japan exhibitions. Julio Lugo can't do much worse (.237 and average in the field), especially batting at the back of the lineup.
The guy I believe is a sleeper is Jon Lester, who I see as a No. 2 starter in this league real soon. He is about 15 pounds heavier and is tougher mentally than most players in the league.
He won't be able to hide in the No. 3 spot with Beckett's back hurting and Schilling out for the year, but that's OK.
His performance in Game 4 against Colorado (5 2/3 innings, 0 runs, 3 hits) was special in my book.

9. Who is the one player the Red Sox can't afford to lose for an extended period?
Before you say, "Josh Beckett," I've got a bigger candidate - Jason Varitek.
He is the glue to this team. And Kevin Cash, while a nice backup, is no Varitek.
The captain doesn't have to hit .275 and he doesn't have to hit 20 homers. All he has to do is play four out of every five days, and the Red Sox will be in the hunt.
He missed 32 straight games when the Sox were in the hunt in 2006 and the Sox lost 22 of them.
Varitek is too important with this pitching staff. He is basically a coach.
If he goes, so goes the Sox chances.

10. Will Sox fans give players and management a mulligan if they finish third or out of the playoffs?
Are you kidding me? No way.
There was a mulligan after 2004, for obvious reasons. That ain't happening any more. Red Sox fans want blood. They want a dynasty. And they want to beat the Yankees again, as much as they ever have.
The landscape has changed. There is no such term as "Wait 'til next year" around here. Slumping players will not be cheered like they are in Japan. They will be expected to perform at the highest level.

Bill Burt writes for The Eagle-Tribune of North Andover, Mass. E-mail him at bburt@eagletribune.com. Visit Bill Burt's blog at www.eagle-tribune.com.

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