Published: May 09, 2008 09:29 am         

Barack Obama makes history (Corrected)

But black candidate will have hard time in Kentucky

FRANKFORT, Ky. — It’s over.



Kentucky voters hoped this would be the presidential primary when their votes actually counted. But Barack Obama’s big win in North Carolina and narrow two-point loss in Indiana last Tuesday pretty much sealed the Democratic race.



Barring some major revelation or disaster, Obama will be the Democratic nominee and will face Republican John McCain in November. With only six contests remaining – including Kentucky and Oregon on May 20 – Obama’s lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton is too wide and there are too few votes and delegates remaining for her to catch him. She’s run out of time, out of money and out of hope.



The New York Times politics blog, The Caucus, on Thursday estimated Clinton would have to win two of every three remaining votes in those six primaries to match Obama’s popular vote total. She’d have to win 80 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to catch him in that category. And so far, Obama has won 52 percent of the delegates in all the previous primaries and caucuses. The Caucus estimated Clinton now has only eight more super delegates – party officials who can vote any way they wish – than Obama. More are about to commit to Obama.



Clinton will win big in West Virginia and Kentucky if she stays in the race and it looks like she will. Polls have her as much as 20 points ahead in West Virginia and the SurveyUSA poll, which has been accurate in recent Kentucky elections but was badly off the mark in Indiana where it had Clinton ahead by 12 points, shows Clinton ahead in Kentucky 62-28.



Even Obama said Thursday that Clinton’s lead in the two states is insurmountable. But Obama will win Oregon and that is likely to provide him a majority of pledged delegates. It’s over. The inevitable nominee turned out not to be. We will have an election with a African American as a real contender to become president.



I grew up in the era of desegregation, during the civil rights movement. I watched on television as Birmingham police turned dogs and fire hoses on civil rights demonstrators. I recall the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King. I felt the racial tensions in the hallways of my high school. I remember the riots in Detroit and in Watts and later in Louisville. We’ve come an amazingly long way.



But not as far as might be hoped. Anyone who listens to what some voters in Kentucky are saying knows Obama won’t do well here, either in May or in November. There are Kentucky Democrats who believe Clinton is the better choice. Some are troubled over comments by his former pastor. Yes, there are Kentucky Democrats who will support Obama in the fall after he wins the nomination. Obama might have a shot at carrying the third district in Jefferson County in the primary. But it’s obvious that many in Kentucky won’t vote for him because he is black.



He is running for president in a country that reveres a Declaration of Independence which declares all men created equal. But it will be a difficult quest for the man who believes in the audacity of hope. Another young, thoughtful and smart politician, a Kentucky Republican who supports John McCain, said to me this week: “It’s time for this country to tear the scab off of the race problem. He’ll do it. But we’ll win the election.”



Maybe it’s not too audacious to hope he’s no less than half right.



Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com.